Intrade versus FiveThirtyEight
A number of people have compared the final forecasts for the election (e.g. this), but I’m more interested in longer term forecasting, so I’m comparing the state-by-state predictions of Intrade and...
View ArticleThe Signal and the Noise
Book review: The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don’t by Nate Silver. This is a well-written book about the challenges associated with making predictions. But nearly all...
View ArticleTradesports compared to the pollsters
Once again, I feel somewhat humbled for underestimating the accuracy of presidential election markets. At least I was cautious enough to mainly bet against Bush winning states where he appeared to be...
View ArticleIntrade Notes
To deter any suspicion that the comparisons I plan to make between Intrade’s predictions and polls are comparisons I selected to make Intrade look good, I’m announcing now that I intend to use...
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